Turkey: Rocky Road Ahead For Reconciliation With Armenia
The October 10 protocols on reconciliation signed by Turkey and Armenia may signal a milestone in the history of the South Caucasus, but Turkish experts warn that serious hurdles still stand in the way of the two countries actually opening up their borders.
The protocols to be signed call for the renewal of diplomatic ties, opening of the common border and the establishment of a historical commission to investigate the mass murder of Armenians by Ottoman forces during World War I.
The only catch, analysts point out, is that the protocols will only go into effect once the parliaments in both countries ratify them. In Turkey, domestic opposition could stand in the way of that happening.
“The road to restoring Turkish-Armenian relations is rocky,” said Amanda Akcakoca, a Turkey expert at The European Policy Centre, a Brussels-based think tank.
“Signing it is not the same thing as having it ratified in parliament. That’s going to be the hard part.”
For Turkey, the Nagorno-Karabakh issue could stand in the way of the protocols’ ratification. Turkey is Azerbaijan’s strongest ally, and Ankara imposed its economic blockade on Armenia in 1993 to support Baku’s efforts to retain control over Karabakh.
During a May 14 address to the Azerbaijani parliament, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared “that the border between Turkey and Armenia will be open only after the full liberation of the Azerbaijani occupied territories.”
Although the recently released protocols make no mention of a linkage between the normalization of Turkish-Armenian ties and the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process, parliamentarians from the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) have warned that it would be hard to pass the protocols without any progress on Nagorno-Karabakh.
Speaking soon after the protocols were signed, Erdogan also seemed to again link the two processes. “We want all conflicts to be resolved and we want all borders to be opened at the same time,” Erdogan said in a televised speech. “(But) as long as Armenia does not withdraw from the occupied territories in Azerbaijan, Turkey cannot take up a positive position.”
“If problems between Azerbaijan and Armenia are resolved, the public would more easily accept Turkish-Armenian relations. Approval in the Turkish National Assembly would be so much easier,” he said.
For its part, the Azerbaijani government said on October 11 that the agreement “clouds the spirit of brotherly relations” between Azerbaijan and Turkey.
Still, experts point out that despite the opposition to the deal, moving ahead on restoring ties with Armenia makes strategic and political sense for Turkey, a European Union candidate country that has ambitions to play a larger political and diplomatic role in the surrounding region and to establish itself as an important energy transit route.
“The invasion of Georgia last summer really concentrated minds in the region. Energy routes are the biggest game in town, and you need security and stability and access for that,” said Semih Idiz, an Ankara-based foreign affairs columnist for the daily Milliyet. “Restoring relations with Armenia can create all kinds of synergy for regional cooperation and stability.”
Diplomatic ties with Yerevan can also buff Anakara’s image in the EU, he added.
“It brings credibility to the vision of zero problems with neighbors and for cooperating in the region and Turkey gains credibility in terms of its EU dimension,” Idiz said.
Editor’s Note: Yigal Schleifer is a freelance reporter based in Istanbul.
Copyright (c) 2003 Open Society Institute. Reprinted with the permission of the Open Society Institute, 400 West 59th Street, New York, NY 10019 USA, www.EurasiaNet.org. or www.soros.org.
Source: Eurasianet – Original Article
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